2025 PGA Championship odds, DFS picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau are the ones to beat
The 107th PGA Championship will be contested in North Carolina at Quail Hollow Club, the usual home for the Truist Championship. The season’s second major championship seems to be coming at just the right time, with many of the big names in professional golf coming into the week in excellent form.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is coming off a near record-setting win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where he gained an incredible 23.7 shots on the field. Rory McIlroy is in the field following his win at the Masters and is going to be teeing it up on a golf course where he has won four times. Justin Thomas is coming off a T2 at the Philadelphia Cricket Club after winning the RBC Heritage the start before, and he won the 2017 PGA Championship at this golf course. Bryson DeChambeau, who is coming off a win at LIV Korea, finished second at the 2024 PGA Championship and gave McIlroy all he could handle for three days at this year’s Masters.
I didn’t even mention the 2024 PGA Championship winner, Xander Schauffele, who has two major championship wins and five top-eight finishes in his last five major championships. He finished second at Quail Hollow Club in 2023 and 2024 while gaining over 24 strokes combined from tee to green. The cream has risen to the top at the PGA Championship over the last 10 years when you look back at the list of winners. The most surprising win is probably Phil Mickelson’s in 2021, but you can never discount a multiple major championship winner.
Quail Hollow Club will be playing long this week as rain is in the forecast for early in the week, with some showers on Friday and Saturday as well. That means the rough will be a little more penal, and the fairways may not see as much run.
My usual model at Quail Hollow Club favors strokes gained off the tee, and that won’t be any different this week. The bombers should have a big advantage. The new greens should hold up to the moisture and will still roll at 12.5 on the Stimpmeter. My model will feature a higher percentage of course history than it usually does, as players who perform well at Quail Hollow Club tend to play well there year after year.
2025 PGA Championship odds
Course information
- Course: Quail Hollow Club
- Location: Charlotte, N.C.
- Designers: George Cobb, updated by Tom Fazio
- Length: 7,626 yards
- Par: 71
- Average green size: 6,600 square feet
- Past PGA Championship winners: 2024 Xander Schauffele, 2023 Brooks Koepka, 2022 Justin Thomas, 2021 Phil Mickelson, 2020 Collin Morikawa, 2019 Brooks Koepka, 2018 Brooks Koepka, 2017 Justin Thomas, 2016 Jimmy Walker, 2015 Jason Day, 2014 Rory McIlroy
- Past Truist Championship/Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club winners: 2024 Rory McIlroy, 2023 Wyndham Clark, 2021 Rory McIlroy, 2019 Max Homa, 2018 Jason Day, 2017 Brian Harman, 2016 James Hahn, 2015 Rory McIlroy, 2014 J.B. Holmes
Betting slip
Bryson DeChambeau (+1000) is coming off a win at LIV Korea, and he has gained over 10.9 strokes from tee to green at each of the last two PGA Championships. His driving is at an elite level right now. He has gained over 4.8 strokes off the tee in six straight tournaments. He has gained over 13 strokes off the tee combined in his last two tournaments in only six rounds. He gained over 13.8 strokes combined putting over his last two tournaments at Quail Hollow Club. The two-time U.S. Open champion is going to add more major championship silverware to his collection very soon, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it were this week.
Justin Thomas (+1800), as mentioned above, is coming off a T2 at the Truist Championship, where he gained over 9.2 strokes tee-to-green. He won the RBC Heritage the start before that and won the 2017 PGA Championship here in 2017. Thomas has two PGA Championship wins and finished T8 last year, gaining over 13 strokes from tee to green before his balky putter let him down. He has seemed to figure out his putter after struggling with it throughout 2024.
Tyrrell Hatton (+4500) gained over 4.2 strokes off the tee at the Masters and was a mainstay at the top of the leaderboard before fading on the weekend. He won in October and in January on the DP World Tour and gained over five strokes on approach at LIV Korea. He has four top-15 finishes in PGA Championships and finished T3 at Quail Hollow Club in 2023, gaining over 11.2 strokes from tee to green.
Patrick Reed (+6600) hasn’t missed a cut at the PGA Championship since 2019 and finished T2 at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club. He has four top-seven finishes in his last five starts, including his third-place finish at the Masters. He has never lost strokes around the green at Quail Hollow Club, and he finished T8 here the last time he teed it up in 2021.
DFS plays
Scottie Scheffler ($13,400) has never teed it up at Quail Hollow Club outside of the President’s Cup. He is coming off an incredible win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where it looked like he finally put his full game together. Scheffler has four top-eight finishes in four starts at the PGA Championship, including a T8 last year after getting arrested on his way to the course. If Scheffler had at least one start at Quail Hollow Club where he finished in the top 10, we would be talking about him being in the low 30 percent ownership range. Instead, we are possibly getting him at a lower number than usual coming off a win.
Rory McIlroy ($12,200) is the horse course of all horse courses here. If you haven’t seen the clip of Jordan Spieth giving him some stick on the practice range last week, you have to check it out. The players know Rory owns this course, with his first PGA Tour win coming here at 21 years old and following that with three more wins. Rory lost strokes around the green and on approach last week, and still finished T7 against a strong field. I don’t see a way that you can fade Rory unless you are playing in a single-entry and hoping that his ownership is astronomical.
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,500) See above.
Xander Schauffele ($10,700) won the 2024 PGA Championship and has an excellent course history here with two straight second-place finishes. He is driving the ball really long right now and looks healthy. He isn’t quite on the ball-striking level that he was in 2024, but he is showing glimpses, like when he gained over 11.2 strokes on approach at the Valspar. I love the price, and I feel like I need to find ways to fit him in my lineups.
Justin Thomas ($9,900) See above.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,500) hasn’t won a tournament in over two years, but contended with McIlroy and DeChambeau at the 2024 U.S. Open when every metric said it was going to be a bombers week. He has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in each of his last five tournaments, and he is coming off his best finish of the 2025 PGA Tour season with a T4 at the Truist Championship. His around-the-green game has been holding him back lately, and that has been the case in almost every PGA Championship he has played. I’m going to sprinkle him in some lineups, but I’m not overly confident.
Shane Lowry ($9,200) is coming off a T2 at the Truist Championship and has seven top-20 finishes in his last eight tournaments. He has been driving it really well after struggling with his driver on the weekend at the Masters. He has five top-12 finishes at the PGA Championship in his last seven tries. He has never finished inside the top 35 at Quail Hollow Club, which is a bit concerning at this price point.
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,000) See above.
Patrick Reed ($8,100) See above.
Sepp Straka ($8,000) won the Truist Championship last week in fantastic fashion against a packed field. He has won twice this season and could have won at Pebble Beach if he hadn’t been fighting sickness. He has been gaining a ton of strokes on approach for a while, and we are getting him at a very discounted price. My issue with Straka at majors is that they seem to be too big a stage. He has two top-seven finishes in his career at major championships, and he has missed the cut five times in his last 12 major championship starts. He finished T8 here in 2024, which was by far his best result at Quail Hollow Club.
Daniel Berger ($7,900) continues to stripe the ball off the tee and in the fairways. He has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in each of his last four tournaments. His first-round putting has been killing him the last two weeks. If he can somehow figure that out, he could surprise this week, and I love this price.
Tony Finau ($7,400) has started to gain some strokes with the putter, and he is seeing some positive results on the golf course. His T15 at the Truist Championship was his best finish since February at the Genesis Invitational. He hasn’t missed a cut at the PGA Championship since 2016 and was in contention to win in 2020 and 2021. His results at Quail Hollow Club are OK, but not something that jumps out. Brian Harman at $7,400 will jump off the page a little more to everyone when they are building lineups.
Keegan Bradley ($7,200) hasn’t missed a cut at the PGA Championship since Harding Park in 2020, and he won the PGA Championship in 2011. He has three top-30 finishes in his last four starts at the PGA Championship. He has lost strokes putting in four straight tournaments, which is a bit concerning. He has three straight top-35 finishes at Quail Hollow Club.
Dean Burmester ($6,900) is a big hitter who makes his money on the LIV Tour. He has two top-five finishes on that tour this year and had a nice T12 at the 2024 PGA Championship. He hasn’t missed a cut at a major championship since 2022.
Andrew Novak ($6,600) will be playing in his first PGA Championship and will be teeing it up at Quail Hollow Club for the first time in competition. Novak is in great form, playing some of the best golf of his career, and will be sprinkled in my lineups.
David Puig ($6,500) has five top-six finishes in 2025 on the DP World Tour and the LIV Tour combined. Puig is long off the tee and has been gaining over two strokes off the tee in almost every tournament he has played.
Stephan Jaeger ($6,500) gained strokes across the board last week at the Truist Championship as he finished T7. He finished top 27 the last two times he played at Quail Hollow Club. He has made the cut in each of the last two PGA Championships before fading on the weekend. I think the golf courses play a little long for him, but his recent form is good enough to make some lineups.
J.J. Spaun ($6,500) shows up in my model because of his course history here. He has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in each of his two starts here and hasn’t finished outside of the top 27. He has gained strokes off the tee in six of his last seven tournaments.
Bud Cauley ($6,200) has only missed the cut once at Quail Hollow Club and gained strokes across the board at the 2017 PGA Championship. He has been in fine form and looks to be healthy and ready to finally take that next step in his career.
Keith Mitchell ($6,200) battled Rory McIlroy shot for shot at the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club. He is always in play when driving is the focus, and that will be the case this week. He has five straight top-18 finishes on the PGA Tour and has been a first-round leader multiple times this season. His ownership percentage could be huge at this price.
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen ($6,100) mainly makes his money on the DP World Tour, but he finished second at the Puerto Rico Open and 22nd at the Valspar Championship, gaining over nine strokes tee-to-green. He has had two top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour since.
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra ($5,800) has five top-six finishes in his last seven starts worldwide. The 25-year-old is an excellent driver who is poised to make big waves in golf.
Kevin Yu ($5,800) finished fourth at the Myrtle Beach Classic and has been driving it well for most of the year. He gained over four strokes off the tee at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. This is the first time he is playing the PGA Championship and teeing it up at Quail Hollow Club.
Sami Välimäki ($5,500) hasn’t missed a cut in a non-team event since the WM Phoenix Open and finished T7 at the Myrtle Beach Classic his last time out. He hasn’t made a cut at the PGA Championship yet, but he played well in round one at Valhalla last year.
Marco Penge ($5,400) shows up in my model because of his win at the Hainan Classic in China on the DP World Tour. He makes his money with his driver, so I will be sprinkling him in some lineups this week.
Niklas Nørgaard Møller ($5,400) finished T5 at the Myrtle Beach Classic and gained over six strokes off the tee at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He has struggled with his irons since Puerto Rico.
I’ll leave you with the fact that Michael Block ($5,500) is priced higher than Phil Mickelson ($5,400).
(Photo of Scottie Scheffler: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images for The CJ Cup)
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Dennis Esser is a contributor to The Athletic, covering golf through the lens of sports betting and fantasy sports. A resident of New Jersey, Dennis' writing has appeared in numerous fantasy and betting outlets. Follow Dennis on Twitter @coachesser
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S
· 15h 5m ago
No love for Homa? He seems to be coming out of his funk with a nice T-12 at Augusta last month. Combine that with terrific course history, and there’s some potential to make some cash.
J
· 13h 43m ago
Love the work as always
C
· 11h 30m ago
I like Maverick McNealy for the win..
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