the WoRld AheAd 2024

Future-gazing analysis, predictions and speculation

From the editor

The World Ahead 2024

Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2024

A letter from the editor of The World Ahead



Democracy in danger

2024 will be stressful for those who care about liberal democracy

In theory it should be a triumphant year for democracy. In practice it will be the opposite

Multipolar disorder

The world must try to break a vicious cycle of insecurity

The fragility of the Western coalition is a crucial weakness

Middle East in turmoil

Don’t give up on peace in the Middle East

But the process of getting there will be alarmingly fragile

Whither Ukraine?

Europe needs to step up support for Ukraine

As a long war with Russia looms, American support can no longer be depended on

The year ahead


Drawing on 2024

The Economist’s editorial cartoonist Kevin (“KAL”) Kallaugher pictures the year ahead

The World Ahead 2024

Calendar 2024

Our selection of events around the world


Superforecasters in 2024

What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024

The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year


Britain votes

Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer: who would actually bring change?

Two men who are not natural brawlers will fight it out for power in Britain’s election in 2024

Tories in trouble

Britain’s Conservative Party faces up to its mortality

Expect the five stages of grief

Britain’s economy

The outlook for the British economy is better than expected

But that does not mean it is rosy

Ditching the king

Which Commonwealth realms might ditch King Charles III?

A new wave of republicanism is gathering

Labour’s economic plans

Rachel Reeves on Labour’s plans for Britain’s finances

The shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer promises to restore economic stability


Ukraine fights on

The war in Ukraine may be heading for stalemate

Some big decisions will need to be made

Russia’s perpetual war

Vladimir Putin cannot keep funding his war for ever

But after winning Russia’s presidential election in March, he will try

Trouble in the Caucasus

How the war in Ukraine is changing the Caucasus

Turkey and Azerbaijan hope to benefit from Russia’s betrayal of Armenia

Baltics and Nordics

Ukraine has brought Nordic and Baltic countries together

It turns out the Baltics were right

Politics and Olympics

France will unify for sport but not for politics

The Paris 2024 Olympics will briefly pause the polarising politics

Centrists v populists

Europe’s elections pitch centrists against populists, again

Expect spats over net zero and over who gets the top jobs

United States

Unpopularity contest

An unpopularity contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump looms

The coming year is likely to bring even greater malaise among American voters

Who to watch

The people to watch in 2024 ahead of America’s election

Some are well known, some are not

America’s economy

Three economic risks facing America in 2024

The economy has dodged a recession, but it is not out of the woods yet

Stretched superpower

With crises in Ukraine and Israel, can America still defend Taiwan?

American power is being stretched abroad and undermined at home

Free speech online

Can America regulate big tech at all?

State internet-safety laws face First Amendment scrutiny in 2024

Small towns get bigger

Americans are moving to smaller towns in the South

Enthusiasm for small-town living has outlived the pandemic

The Americas

Latin America’s politics

Latin America’s left-right divide may be disrupted in 2024

Politics in the region is becoming more complex

Mexican democracy