Editor’s note (2:05pm GMT, June 10th 2024): This page has been updated with the provisional results of the election.
After four days of voting, the EU has published a first projection of the results for its election of a new European Parliament. As polls predicted, the centre-right group known as the European People’s Party, or EPP, is once again the largest; it is projected to win 186 seats. The centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) looks set to win about 134 seats. But the hard right has gained ground in some countries.
The Economist is tracking the contest. Here you can find a breakdown of the results, analysis of what’s at stake and short guides to each group in the Parliament. And if you are interested in contests elsewhere, see our Trump/Biden poll tracker, our British election tracker and more at our election tracker hub.
The hard-right Identity & Democracy (ID) group is projected to win 58 seats. It failed to pull ahead of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), a group of soft Eurosceptics. Nor did it beat and replace the liberal Renew Europe group, who remain as the third-biggest force in parliament. That was partly because the ID group ejected one of its biggest members, Alternative for Germany (AfD), at the end of May. Maximilian Krah, one of the AfD’s candidates, had suggested that not all officers in Nazi Germany were war criminals. In 2016, the AfD was expelled by the ECR, who have also gained seats and come fourth in this election.
Provisional hard-right* vote share, %
6
48
No hard-right party
*ECR, ID and other hard-right parties
The biggest winner of the night was Marine Le Pen and the National Rally, her hard-right party, which is part of the ID group. National Rally was projected to win 30 seats whereas President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition secured just 13. On Sunday evening Mr Macron announced he would dissolve the French national assembly and called legislative elections, to take place on June 30th and July 7th.
Another winner is Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister since 2022 and the leader of the hard-right Brothers of Italy. Her party looks to have won 29% of the vote—up from 6% in 2019. Overall, hard-right parties have come first or second in eight of the 26 member states with available data.
On Monday, the jockeying for the top jobs will commence. Ursula von der Leyen, the current head of the Commission and lead candidate of the EPP, will need 361 votes to be re-elected. The current projections suggest the centrist parties (EPP, S&D and Renew) will win 399 seats. A secret ballot will take place in July or September.
Read more about what powers the European Parliament holds and our analysis of Europe’s shift to the right. Scroll down to see past polls and our guides to each group in Parliament.
Voting intention, %
Left
Right
Unaffiliated
ECR22 EPP6 Greens/EFA9 ID7 NI10 Renew Europe16 S&D6 The Left14 New parties
Dozens of parties, both national and European, are represented in the Parliament, but most belong to one of seven political groups. They work on policies ranging from aid for Ukraine to data-protection laws and cutting the EU’s carbon emissions.
Left
Right
Unaffiliated
France
ECR7 EPP6 Greens33 ID15 Renew14 S&D12 Left7 New
Germany
EPP14 Greens16 NI6 Renew15 S&D9 Left11 New
Italy
ECR9 EPP9 ID15 NI9 Renew21 S&D2 Left8 New
Spain
ECR36 EPP2 NI2 Renew31 S&D4 Left14 New
At the previous election in 2019, liberals also feared a shift to the right. But although the number of right-wing MEPs grew, so did the tally of those belonging to the most pro-EU parties. Since then, however, the effects of the covid-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine and in the Middle East, and renewed worries about immigration have led to a surge in support for right-wingers in some member states. In 2022 Italy voted a hard-right party into office, and in 2023 the party of Geert Wilders, an anti-Muslim populist, won the Dutch election (though he has not been able to form a government). The European polls show that parties on the fringes are gaining ground compared with 2019.
What may give centrists hope is that right-wing groups remain deeply divided—many hard-right parties are “Non-Inscrits”, or non-attached, meaning that they have decided not to join a parliamentary group. And a large number of new parties or coalitions have not yet announced which group they might join if their candidates are elected.
Share of seats in European Parliament, %
100
Left
Greens
Left-wing
75
S&D
Renew
Centrist
50
NI
EPP
25
Right-wing
ECR
ID
0
1979
84
89
94
99
2004
09
14
19
As well as making laws and deciding on the EU’s budget (along with the EU’s 27 member states and the European Commission), the Parliament plays a role in who gets the EU’s plum jobs. Each group can nominate a “Spitzenkandidat”, or lead candidate for president of the European Commission. Although who gets the post is ultimately decided by the EU’s 27 national leaders, the Parliament must then approve their choice. Ursula von der Leyen, the current president, won in 2019 without being the top candidate of any group, prompting questions over whether the Spitzenkandidat system, introduced in 2014, will endure.
Google search interest, Jan 1st-June 3rd 2024
Least
Most
Conflicts
Cost of living
Environment
Retirement
What matters most to voters? We looked at what people across the EU are searching for to get a sense of which issues may prove decisive. Search-traffic data from Google reveal vast geographical differences. Many Europeans worry about conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and in Gaza. People in Estonia and Latvia, close to Russia, have searched for this the most. Keywords relating to the cost of living, such as “inflation”, as well as “energy prices”, “food prices” and “mortgages”, are searched particularly often in Germany and Italy. The environment, including terms such as “climate change”, is a hot topic on the continent’s fringes: it’s most often searched for in Malta and it also seems popular in countries with long coastlines such as Portugal, Spain and Denmark. Searches related to retirement policies are high in Romania—its government promised a rise in pensions for 2024—and in France, where the pension age was raised from 62 to 64 last year.
The European People’s Party Group (EPP) is currently the largest in the Parliament and has won every election since 1999. (Somewhat confusingly the group’s European sister party is also called the European People’s Party.) Its chair is Manfred Weber of Germany’s conservative Christian Social Union, the Bavarian ally of the Christian Democrats. EPP members have many of the EU’s big jobs: Roberta Metsola, a Maltese MEP, is president of the Parliament. And the EPP party’s “Spitzenkandidat”, or lead candidate for president of the European Commission, is Ursula von der Leyen, the incumbent.
S&D
Centre-left
The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) has existed since 1953, albeit under several different names. Notable parties include Spain’s Socialist Workers’ Party, Germany’s Social Democrats and Italy’s Democratic Party. Its president is Iratxe GarcÃa from Spain, and its Party of European Socialists has endorsed Nicolas Schmit, a Luxembourgish politician and current EU commissioner for jobs and social rights, as its Sptizenkandidat.
The Identity and Democracy (ID) group was formed after the collapse of the Europe of Nations and Freedom group. The French National Rally, Marine Le Pen’s party, leads the polls for it in France. Other members include Austria’s Freedom Party and the Dutch Party for Freedom of Geert Wilders. In May the Alternative for Germany (AfD) was kicked out of the group. It is chaired by Marco Zanni, of Italy’s Northern League.
The Greens/European Free Alliance group provides a home for European green parties as well as some small regional parties, animal-welfare groups and pirate parties (which campaign on internet-freedom issues). It is pro-European. Germany’s Greens are its biggest party, followed by France’s Les Écologistes. It is chaired by Philippe Lamberts of Belgium and Terry Reintke of Germany.
ECR
Right-wing
The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) are a group of conservative, soft-Eurosceptic parties. Its members include Poland’s Law and Justice party, the Brothers of Italy and Spain’s Vox. In 2016 the ECR expelled members of Germany’s AfD. After Britain left the EU it lost one of its biggest members—the British Conservative Party.
NI
Non-affiliated
Non-Inscrits (NI, French for “non-attached”) are parties that have decided against joining one of the existing groups in the European Parliament. Their numbers have grown in recent years. Hungary’s right-wing Fidesz party, led by Viktor Orban, the prime minister, as well as the conservative Jobbik party are NIs. Italy’s Five Star Movement is also part of this group.
New
Non-affiliated
There are several new parties and coalitions that have not yet announced which group they might join if elected. One of them is Spain’s far-left Sumar, which ran in the country’s general election for the first time in 2023. Another is Portugal’s Democratic Alliance, which comprises three parties that have been associated with the EPP and the ECR. This category also includes all mentions of “other” parties in the polls.
Sources: Europe Elects; European Parliament; Google Trends; national pollsters; The Economist
