2025 PGA Championship picks: McIlroy favored, but which players are best fits for Quail Hollow?
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — For the second time ever, Quail Hollow Club will host the PGA Championship, but don’t bank on this one looking identical to the original.
Back in 2017, the tournament still fell last of the majors chronologically, contested in August before moving to its spring date two years later. Early reports suggest the host venue could play tougher this time of year, which could potentially have the PGA looking more like a U.S. Open. Early-week rain storms have left the course playing long and soft — at least for now, though an underground sub-air system should help retain some firmness.
In 2017, Justin Thomas posted a winning score of 8-under 276 here. JT opened that week at 35-to-1 in the outright market, but the winners’ list since has read like a who’s who of household names in the game, including Brooks Koepka (three times), Collin Morikawa, Thomas again, Phil Mickelson and Xander Schauffele, though Mickelson remains an outlier as a massive long shot four years ago.
It’s difficult to believe we’ll have to look too far down this board to find a champion this weekend.
What we’re aiming to do here is find the best fit between value, player performance and past course history. We’ll break down the field with a look at most likely champions, as well as other players better suited for top-5 or top-40 wagers.
All odds referenced in the article are odds to win the tournament and are as of May 12.
The favorites
Depending on which sportsbook you’re perusing, Scottie Scheffler (+500) and Rory McIlroy (+500) are either 1A and 1B or co-favorites, and all considerations toward outright selections should first acknowledge the game’s two best players. Scheffler is fresh off his first victory of the 2025 campaign, and it was a convincing one, as he went wire-to-wire for an eight-stroke triumph at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson two weeks ago. McIlroy, of course, comes into this one unburdened after capturing the career grand slam at last month’s Masters.
The pick: McIlroy (+500)
They say “horses for courses,” and no one fits that better than Rory, who has been a veritable thoroughbred at Quail Hollow, earning his first career PGA Tour title on this course 15 years ago and adding three more victories since then. With the career slam tucked into the pocket of his green jacket, McIlroy can now aim at becoming the first modern-era grand slam winner ever — and with Oakmont lurking before a trip back home to Royal Portrush, there’s a non-zero chance it could actually happen.
The top-tier
If you’re fading the two favorites, it’s unlikely you’ll be able to look past the group of elite-level competitors just behind them. That list begins with Bryson DeChambeau (+850), who has made a habit of successfully transitioning from 54-hole LIV Golf events to major championships. He has finished inside the top six in four of the last five, including his victory at last year’s U.S. Open.
Thomas (+1800) will return to Quail Hollow not only with the good vibes of his first major but riding a heater after his first win in almost three years at the recent RBC Heritage and another title contention at last week’s Truist Championship, which puts a lot of checkmarks in his favor.
Ludvig Åberg (+2500) is a generational talent who put together a too-little-too-late back-nine push at Augusta National, but that served as his lone top-50 result in his last five starts. Last year served as a coronation for Xander Schauffele (+2000), as he claimed his inevitable first major and grabbed another before the summer was over. He has shown signs of finding his best form since missing two months with a rib injury. The odometer sits at 19 months since Collin Morikawa (+2200) last won a tournament, and while his tee-to-green game has been superb this season, there remains some obvious frustration, perhaps evidenced by his recent caddie change. While DeChambeau has figured out how to bring his best stuff to the biggest events, Jon Rahm (+2000) has regressed in the majors since his LIV exodus, posting just one top-10 and two top-40s in four starts.
The pick: DeChambeau (+850)
We can’t find an unworthy selection amongst those 25-to-1 or shorter, and while it especially pains me to omit Thomas here, it’s impossible to look past Bryson’s recent major record and the fact that his raw power should be a massive benefit on this 7,626-yard golf course.
The contenders
If you’re looking beyond the top tier for outright plays, it’s important to remember the exact type of player you’re seeking. When it comes to outright tickets, second place is indeed the first loser, so we’re attempting to identify those with massive upside over those who provide a high floor.
Hideki Matsuyama (+4000), Brooks Koepka (+5000) and Viktor Hovland (+5000) all qualify, while Patrick Cantlay (+3300), Tommy Fleetwood (+3300) and Shane Lowry (+4500) are each likely more valuable as finishing position wagers.
Joaquin Niemann (+3300) owns three LIV titles this year, but he has zero top-10s in 23 career majors, which is more than a little concerning. Jason Day (+6600) has looked much better since returning to work with longtime instructor Colin Swatton. However, last week’s withdrawal due to a neck injury is worrisome. Sungjae Im (+6600) is starting to find some form. Wyndham Clark (+10000) hasn’t looked like himself lately, though he did win at Quail Hollow two years ago.
The pick: Sam Burns (+10000)
At this point, we’re simply number-hunting and identifying which prices appear too long. While I do think Cantlay owns some win equity, I don’t like him 3-4 times more than a few players who are priced 3-4 times higher. At +10000, Burns stuck out to me as someone whose actual win probability might exceed his implied probability. I’m looking to identify those with a strong driver/putter combination, and while his major record isn’t much to get excited about, the five-time PGA Tour winner hits it a long way and statistically has been the best putter this year. Special consideration goes to Tony Finau (+10000), whose price is a bit mind-boggling, despite a two-year winless drought.
The story
We’ve gotten this far without mentioning Jordan Spieth (+5500), who will compete at the PGA Championship for the ninth straight year with a chance to match McIlroy and complete the career grand slam. In those previous eight attempts, he has finished in the top 10 just once: a T-3 result in 2019 when he never really challenged Koepka for the title at Bethpage. Over the past four years, one of the game’s most high-variance players has at least displayed a recurring level of consistency, finishing between 29th and 43rd on the leaderboard every time. So, what should we expect this time around?
The pick: Spieth top-40 (-160)
On the heels of a final-round 62 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson two weeks ago, there were signs that Spieth was rounding into serious form entering the year’s second major. However, a share of 34th place at the Truist Championship represents, if not a step in the wrong direction, then perhaps a level of neutrality. Throw in the fact that his results at Quail Hollow include only a T-32 (2013), missed cut (2023) and T-29 (2024) at the erstwhile Wells Fargo Championship and T-28 at the 2017 PGA Championship. A 5-0-0 record at the 2022 Presidents Cup is the only hint that he can find success on this course. It’s tough to think it’ll be a poor week for Spieth, but it’s equally tough to believe it’ll be something special. Targeting him for a low-end floor play feels like the only move here.
The floor plays
If you believe that a superstar with shorter odds is going to win this week, then value has to come from elsewhere — and I believe that elsewhere resides in the finishing position markets.
Sepp Straka (+5000) should be top of mind after his Truist Championship victory. From top-fives to top-40s, there are plenty of ways to invest in a player’s floor potential instead of their ceiling. Despite a pair of wins this year, his best value might emanate from his floor, as he’s posted 10 top-30 results in a dozen starts. Straka is currently listed at -140 to finish in the top 40.
Lowry, the man who was alongside him in Sunday’s final pairing in Philadelphia, actually serves as a capable comp, as he’s finished top-20 in 14 of his last 17 worldwide events. Same goes for Daniel Berger (+6600), who’s been top-30 in 11 of 13 starts this year. Lowry currently sits at +160 to finish in the top 20, while Berger is listed at +135 to finish in the top 30.
Patrick Reed (+6600) was tied for second the last time a major was held at Quail Hollow and third at the Masters, making him a potentially popular play in these markets. If you are feeling frisky, Reed sits at +1100 to finish in the top 5. Akshay Bhatia (+10000) and Harris English (+15000) similarly own some top-20/top-40 value. Both golfers are listed at +350 to finish in the top 20. Then there’s the floor kings, as Tommy Fleetwood (+3300) and Russell Henley (+6600) have combined for just one PGA Tour win in the past three calendar years, but 30 top-10 results. You can bet on either golfer to finish in the top 10 at plus money. Fleetwood sits at +300, while Henley is listed at +400 to finish in the top 10.
The pick: Berger top-20 (+225)
Speak with people who spend their lives inside the ropes at professional golf tournaments, and they’ll readily admit that Berger has returned from what was a lingering back injury to become one of the better players at the highest level once again. While it hasn’t manifested itself in the ultimate ceiling yet, as his last of four wins came over four years ago, he does have three top-three results among those 11 top-30s this year, which suggests he’s about as safe a floor play for the price as we’ll be able to find.
The long shots
According to golfodds.com, over the past 13 years, there have been 11 winners of the PGA Championship whose odds were +3500 or shorter entering the tournament. The only outliers were Jimmy Walker (+12500 in 2016) while in the midst of a breakthrough season and Phil Mickelson (+25000 in 2021) despite being a five-time major champion.
It’s difficult to believe there will be a long-shot winner this week, but for those intent on playing long numbers, there are some with intrigue. The last +10000 or higher winner before Walker? None other than Keegan Bradley (+12500), whose number this week is the same as it was during that rookie year.
If every day were Thursday, Keith Mitchell (+10000) would be Scottie Scheffler. (Note: Every day is decidedly not Thursday.) Davis Thompson (+12500) owns a ton of offensive firepower, but might be another year or two away from challenging for a major. Denny McCarthy (+15000) is a short hitter who tends to thrive on longer courses — and, oh by the way, is one of the game’s best putters. Taylor Pendrith (+17500) has the length to perform well here.
The problem with betting Rasmus Højgaard (+15000) is that you just know it’ll wind up being Nicolai Højgaard (+30000) who thrives instead, and the problem with betting Nicolai Højgaard is that… well, you get the picture. Play neither or both, but take only one at your own peril.
Mackenzie Hughes (+20000) is fresh off a playoff loss at the Myrtle Beach Classic, and he’s a member at Quail. It would be a massive shock if Cameron Young (+15000) finally wins, but he is fresh off a top-10 finish at the Truist and has a massive price next to his name. Then there’s Mickelson (+35000), who is even longer than four years ago when he won, and nobody thought he could.
The long-shot pick: Bradley (+12500)
Again — and this can’t be reiterated enough — this doesn’t feel like a week where we want to go bargain shopping. If I have to pick one, I have the most confidence in Bradley. His record at Quail isn’t terrific, with a best finish of T-18 in seven starts at the annual PGA Tour event and T-33 at the 2017 PGA Championship, but a course that requires long, straight drives off the tee should suit his game.
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Rory McIlroy: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)
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The first professional golf tournament Jason Sobel ever covered was the 2000 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. As he likes to say: "Great week for Tiger, better week for me." Four years later, he began covering the sport full-time, working in several capacities for ESPN, Golf Channel and The Action Network over the past two decades. He is currently a host for SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio, Golf Analyst for CBS Sports and Brand Ambassador for BetMGM. He's won four Sports Emmy awards, more than a dozen Golf Writers Association of America accolades and has earned an honorable mention in the Best of American Sportswriting series. He is a 1997 graduate of Brandeis University.
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T
· 20h 7m ago
This is Rory’s to lose. His driving length and height is a huge advantage over the field, especially on these rain drenched fairways.
A
· 18h 42m ago
I naively thought this would be an article about golf.
B
· 18h 46m ago
Sheffler over Bryson at this course doesn't make much sense. This is a bombers paradise and it's another Rory and Bryson battle ready to happen.
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