the WoRld AheAd 2024
Future-gazing analysis, predictions and speculation
From the editor
The World Ahead 2024
Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2024
A letter from the editor of The World Ahead
Contents
Leaders
Democracy in danger
2024 will be stressful for those who care about liberal democracy
In theory it should be a triumphant year for democracy. In practice it will be the opposite
Multipolar disorder
The world must try to break a vicious cycle of insecurity
The fragility of the Western coalition is a crucial weakness
Middle East in turmoil
Don’t give up on peace in the Middle East
But the process of getting there will be alarmingly fragile
Whither Ukraine?
Europe needs to step up support for Ukraine
As a long war with Russia looms, American support can no longer be depended on
America’s fateful choice
America will need a new vocabulary to discuss its presidential election
Unprecedented, uncharted, not unthinkable
The world economy
Don’t count on a soft landing for the world economy
Inflation has fallen, but vulnerabilities remain
The year ahead
KAL
Drawing on 2024
The Economist’s editorial cartoonist Kevin (“KAL”) Kallaugher pictures the year ahead
Superforecasters
Superforecasters in 2024
What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024
The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year
Britain
Britain votes
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer: who would actually bring change?
Two men who are not natural brawlers will fight it out for power in Britain’s election in 2024
Tories in trouble
Britain’s Conservative Party faces up to its mortality
Expect the five stages of grief
Britain’s economy
The outlook for the British economy is better than expected
But that does not mean it is rosy
Ditching the king
Which Commonwealth realms might ditch King Charles III?
A new wave of republicanism is gathering
The ailing NHS
Britain’s NHS will continue to be a political hot potato in 2024
Perhaps hotter than usual
Labour’s economic plans
Rachel Reeves on Labour’s plans for Britain’s finances
The shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer promises to restore economic stability
Europe
Ukraine fights on
The war in Ukraine may be heading for stalemate
Some big decisions will need to be made
Russia’s perpetual war
Vladimir Putin cannot keep funding his war for ever
But after winning Russia’s presidential election in March, he will try
Trouble in the Caucasus
How the war in Ukraine is changing the Caucasus
Turkey and Azerbaijan hope to benefit from Russia’s betrayal of Armenia
Baltics and Nordics
Ukraine has brought Nordic and Baltic countries together
It turns out the Baltics were right
Politics and Olympics
France will unify for sport but not for politics
The Paris 2024 Olympics will briefly pause the polarising politics
Centrists v populists
Europe’s elections pitch centrists against populists, again
Expect spats over net zero and over who gets the top jobs
United States
Unpopularity contest
An unpopularity contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump looms
The coming year is likely to bring even greater malaise among American voters
Who to watch
The people to watch in 2024 ahead of America’s election
Some are well known, some are not
America’s economy
Three economic risks facing America in 2024
The economy has dodged a recession, but it is not out of the woods yet
Stretched superpower
With crises in Ukraine and Israel, can America still defend Taiwan?
American power is being stretched abroad and undermined at home
Free speech online
Can America regulate big tech at all?
State internet-safety laws face First Amendment scrutiny in 2024
Small towns get bigger
Americans are moving to smaller towns in the South
Enthusiasm for small-town living has outlived the pandemic
The Americas
Latin America’s politics
Latin America’s left-right divide may be disrupted in 2024
Politics in the region is becoming more complex
Mexican democracy
