2025 PGA Championship long shots, sleepers and prop picks: Top 10s, head-to-heads and more
The PGA Championship has produced a long list of big-name winners over the last 20 years. But the long shots in the field this week can still hold out some hope by looking back on John Daly and Rich Beem and picturing themselves holding the Wanamaker Trophy over their heads on Sunday.
Some people like to point to Y.E. Yang with his win over Tiger Woods as a somewhat recent underdog to win the PGA Championship, but he was far from a long shot in 2009. He had already won on the PGA Tour that season at the Honda Classic and was a winner at the Korea Open just a few years before that.
While most of the attention will be on the top of the field regarding winning bets, there is some value in long shots in this field. To bet a long shot in this tournament, they need to be in some sort of ball-striking form, whether it’s off the tee or on approach. Players will be using the driver more than 85 percent off the tee this week, and they are going to need to have a decent carry distance to avoid long second shots into the greens. The average approach shot distance on the par 4s is over 185 yards for most players in the field.
Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy and a handful of others will be playing a slightly different course because of their distance advantage. The long shots I picked below can hang with those guys off the tee and on their approach shots when they are at their best.
PGA Championship long shots
Min Woo Lee (+9000) is a winner on the PGA Tour this season at the Houston Open and absolutely mashes it off the tee. He gained over 3.6 strokes off the tee for the week at the Truist Championship. He has been excellent around the greens all season, which has helped him save par in big spots while also making par 5s less of a risk on the long second shots. Lee has been inconsistent with the irons all year, and that has made him rely on his putter and his driver a little too much. His best-ever finish in a major was a tie for fifth at the 2023 U.S. Open. He has two straight top-26 finishes at the PGA Championship and is playing Quail Hollow Club for the first time.
Keith Mitchell (+10000) has gained over 1.6 strokes off the tee in nine of his last 10 measured events. You throw in a T2 at the Corales Puntacana Championship and the way he drove it at the Zurich Classic, and he is more than likely 11 for his last 12. He has five straight top-18 finishes, and he battled McIlroy here shot for shot in 2021. But his around-the-green game has killed him at the PGA Championship over the years.
Wyndham Clark (+10000) won the 2023 U.S. Open after surprisingly winning the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship. A little putter change and a lesson from Rickie Fowler made all the difference at the time. He has had stretches where he looked like he was going to be among the top five players in the world. A win at the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was followed up by a second-place finish at Bay Hill and a T2 at the Players Championship before a back injury derailed him a bit. Clark gained strokes across the board at the Houston Open this year, finishing T5, and gained over 1.3 strokes on the field with his driver in his last round at the Truist Championship. He’s a long shot for a reason, as he has never had a very good showing at the PGA Championship, but his experience at this course and his ability to pop out of nowhere have me intrigued.
Si Woo Kim (+12500) is at one of his lowest points in his career with his putter, and yet I look at him and know he can win anywhere and against anyone. He has three straight top-17 finishes in regular non-team events, and he has gained over 10 strokes combined on approach over his last two tournaments. He gained over nine strokes at Quail Hollow Club from tee to green in 2024. He has gained over five strokes combined off the tee in his last two trips here.
Best PGA Championship prop bets
To make the cut
- Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Scottie Scheffler to make the cut (-400)
- Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Jon Rahm to make the cut (-150)
Top Canadian
- Corey Conners (+138) has gained strokes off the tee in eight straight events while gaining strokes on approach in seven straight. He has gained over 10.5 strokes on approach combined at his last two PGA Championships. He has two top-10 finishes in his last three major championships. He has two straight top-13 finishes at Quail Hollow Club while gaining over 16 strokes combined from tee to green.
Top Asian
- Hideki Matsuyama (+225) gained over 10.7 strokes on approach combined over his last two tournaments. His around-the-green game is second to none, and he was in contention to win the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club in 2017. The last two times he gained over two strokes with his driver, he won. If he gets his driver in order, he will be up among the leaders.
Top English
- Tyrrell Hatton (+300)
Top Brit and Irish
- Rory McIlroy (+100)
Top Japanese
- Hideki Matsuyama (-125)
Top rest of the world
- Corey Conners (+800)
Final placement in top 10
- Rory McIlroy (-190)
- Xander Schauffele (+188)
- Patrick Reed (+450)
Final placement in top 20
- Xander Schauffele (-120)
- Justin Thomas (-135)
- Tyrrell Hatton (+150)
- Patrick Reed (+225)
- Brian Harman (+400)
First round leader
- Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
- Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)
- Keith Mitchell (+6600)
Tournament matchups (tie — no bet)
- Patrick Reed vs. Jordan Spieth: Reed (-125)
- Brooks Koepka vs. Cameron Smith: Koepka (-120)
- Rickie Fowler vs. Dustin Johnson: Fowler (-125)
- Jon Rahm vs. Xander Schauffele: Schauffele (+100)
Hole in one?
- No (-175). There have only been six hole-in-ones at Quail Hollow Club over the last 20 years, with Joost Luiten holing out on the par-3 fourth hole at the PGA Championship in 2017. The field for this week is much stronger than most of the fields that played those Wells Fargo Championships, but I still think there is value in the no side of the hole-in-one bet. It may not be exciting to bet this, but it could help keep your bankroll in the green.
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Si Woo Kim: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)
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Dennis Esser is a contributor to The Athletic, covering golf through the lens of sports betting and fantasy sports. A resident of New Jersey, Dennis' writing has appeared in numerous fantasy and betting outlets. Follow Dennis on Twitter @coachesser
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· 1h 0m ago
Thanks for this, Dennis. I love a range of interesting bets to get me thinking on the Wednesday before Thursday tee offs - I smiled when I saw your Rory/Scottie/Bryson to make the cut! Seems like a decent value even though I'm more of a top 10 bettor myself. Appreciate the story - hope you get to attend the tourney!
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