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Battering
Ram at the Firewall: There are a
few key takeaways from yesterday’s German federal elections
that can be rightly called historic for multiple reasons and will
likely define the mood in both Berlin and Brussels for weeks. First,
voter turnout was the highest in four decades, highlighting the
changing and polarized nature of German politics, as well as people’s
deep desire for change. Second, Scholz’s ruling SPD suffered its
greatest defeat since 1887, falling to third place with only 16%—yet,
still creeping back to governance. Third, the AfD solidified its place
both as the second-largest political force with nearly 21%, and as the
face of Germany’s populist revolt against the establishment elites.
Fourth, despite claiming victory with 28%, this was still the CDU’s
second-poorest electoral performance since the ‘50s, which severely
limits its options in the Bundestag. Fifth (and bonus point): von der
Leyen, Metsola, and other Eurocrats were literally left speechless
despite their tendency to be among the first to congratulate their
allies—posting instead about Ukraine like nothing happened in the EU’s
largest country. Back in Berlin, the major question now is whether the
(in)famous firewall against the AfD will hold, and if so, for how long.
We shouldn't have illusions though: CDU is unlikely to give in to “the
will of the people, the will of Germany” (as AfD leader Alice Weidel
put it), and instead will most probably opt for a coalition with the
SPD and Greens despite their deep political differences just to keep
the cordon sanitaire
intact. In other words, voters wanted a firm right-ward shift but will
get more of the same lukewarm, left-leaning politics. Though finding it
unacceptable, AfD does not necessarily consider this betrayal a problem
in the long run: both Weidel and Chrupalla predicted that the unstable,
center-left ‘tripartite’ will collapse “sooner than people believe,”
making a national conservative chancellorship “achievable” even before
2029. If you missed our minute-by-minute coverage from the ground, you
can still look back at the events as they unfolded here. More
updates will follow as well, including interviews and deeper analyses
throughout the week. For now, Berlin out.
Patriots’ Door Open
for AfD? Days before the election, rumors began
circulating in the Bubble that the Patriots for Europe (PfE) group might be willing to open
membership negotiations with AfD, partly depending on their
results. Remember, AfD was a core member of the Patriot-predecessor
Identity and Democracy (ID) group, from which it was kicked out over
disagreements with the French National Rally ahead of the EU elections,
and left to establish its own group, the ESN. But after Elon Musk’s
endorsement of the party, as well as Weidel’s recent meeting with PM
Orbán in Budapest, many of these past reservations “no longer exist,”
Spanish Patriot MEP Hermann Tertsch said. Although RN members are still
skeptical, Tertsch believes there is “a clear and unstoppable path to
unity” among national conservatives in the EU Parliament. With AfD’s 14
MEPs, the Patriots would grow to a hundred members in this hypothetical
scenario, but the ESN would no longer have enough members to remain
qualified as a group. Not so fast, though: ESN leader René Aust told us
that AfD considers loyalty the most important currency in politics and
that the party would not abandon its new allies even if offered a
formal invitation.
Macron’s NATO
Alternative Flops in Paris: Trying desperately to
project leadership amid Europe’s sudden relevance crisis triggered by
Trump’s peace negotiations, President Macron hosted two emergency
summits in Paris last week—the second only after countries were angry
about being left out of the first—with the implied goal of sowing
the seeds of a new European defense alliance without the
U.S. and its few remaining political allies within NATO. But this
“crisis response unit” is far from becoming a NATO alternative, as
evidenced by the fact that not even the biggest
leaders could reach a consensus on sending peacekeepers to
Ukraine, the main topic of the first discussion. All but Macron ruled
out sending their own troops to Ukraine, with a notable ‘maybe’ from
Starmer, who said Brits would go as long as the U.S. is also
present—which Trump repeatedly declined.
Starmer’s heroism has also led to widespread ridicule on the far side
of the Channel, given simulations that show that the Army as a whole
would run out of ammunition in just eight days if it went into combat.
Reform MPs pointed out that “we can’t even protect our own borders,”
much less someone else’s.
S&D Leaked
Vision to Save Brussels’ Firewall: The European
Parliament’s socialist S&D group cooked up a comprehensive strategy
to keep conservative parties excluded from decision-making and prevent
the center-right EPP from ever cooperating with them. The document was leaked despite
explicit instructions for members to keep the five-page paper to
themselves and shred it after reading it. The strategy involves
ridiculing, shaming, and even softly threatening the EPP into staying
loyal to the center-left ‘Ursula coalition’ and identifying key issues
that could be used to “drive a wedge” between it and the groups to its
right—not that the EPP shows any signs of truly becoming right-wing;
it’s only shifting course to keep the appearance of listening to its
voters. At the same time, the paper also calls for strengthening the cordon sanitaire by
denying the conservatives committee positions, minimizing their
speaking time by refraining from interrupting or acknowledging them,
and even preventing them from taking spots on foreign trips whenever
possible. MEP Anders Vistisen (PfE) told us that it’s “astonishing”
what lengths the leftists are willing to go to keep the Right excluded,
which is far beyond what you see in any functioning parliament. “It’s
worse than anything that you would find in any society that defines
itself as democratic.”
Democracy Shield
Off to a Rough Start: The EU Parliament’s new committee
tasked with developing its own version of Brussels’ new
anti-interference instrument (in parallel with the Commission) has held
its first meeting last week, and suffice it to say that MEPs were not
on the same page about what it should look like. On the one hand, not
even the Parliament’s own handpicked “experts” were entirely sure of
the feasibility of the project, which involves using an army of
professional ‘fact-checkers’ to monitor and censor social media. Turns
out that being in this experimental phase didn’t prevent the EU from
already employing a “rapid response system” with regards to the German
election, by the way, while the EPP is also pushing for complementing
the mechanism with the EU’s own intelligence agency in the future.
Meanwhile, back on Earth, the experts were forced to admit that there
is no direct evidence of Russian interference even in the Romanian
election, which was one of the main reasons behind speeding up the implementation
of the Democracy Shield and therefore also the focus of last week’s
discussion. As if this wasn’t enough, MEPs from the Ursula coalition
were hammered with criticism mainly from the Right, who called out the
glaring double standards inherent in the idea. Why are opinions on
social media dangerous while traditional media or Western NGOs are
given a free hand and tons of taxpayer funds to influence elections?
“Would we say the same about Taylor Swift?” French MEP Virginie Joron
asked. “If the newspaper Libération calls
for a vote for Macron, would we conclude that it is responsible for his
victory? Should we have annulled the French elections?” Silence
followed.
Two Specters
Haunting Austria: as in the grand coalition that
socialist SPÖ and the center-right ÖVP are trying to resurrect
and Islamist terror that’s also on the rise. The two establishment
parties already tried and failed to form a government in this format
during the fall, but they began anew last week after the ÖVP rejected
the election-winning sovereigntist FPÖ’s tough migration law in
exchange for stable governance. Now, since the grand coalition between
the two would have a majority of only one seat, they also invited
the liberal NEOS to the table last weekend, although "not quite
there yet," the talks look promising. For everyone, except the
voters, of course, who are set to be sidelined once more, by not
only the exclusion of the winning party but also by having the ÖVP
sling back to the Left on migration to appease its new-old partners.
Like clockwork, the country was shocked by an Islamist
terror attack just as the negotiations began—the first of
its kind since 2020—claiming the life of a 14-year-old and wounding
five more. Another attack planned by a
teenager was thwarted just days later, prompting Austria’s
domestic intelligence chief to state the country was under a “high-risk
threat” of similar Islamist attacks in the future.
Turning France
Against Brussels: A standard procedure expected to
reaffirm France’s previous commitment to adhere to the EU’s 2035 ban on
the sale of new combustion engine cars turned out quite
differently from what the government imagined. Instead of
adapting the EU decree into national law, the French Assembly voted to
reject it—largely thanks to many leftist MPs not showing up while
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally did. One Macronist MP also joined their
cause, arguing that the debate is far from being over in Brussels so
there’s no rush to validate the decision back home. But rejecting
legislation that has already been agreed upon in Brussels opens a whole
host of questions regarding the primacy of EU law over national law,
and the fact that the parliamentary vote is now seemingly devoid of any
political consequence is a stark reminder that elected representatives
“are not masters in their own homes,” writes our French colleague
Hélène de Lauzun.
Slovak Government
Reshuffle: After months of infighting between junior
coalition partners threatening to bring down the government, Slovak PM
Robert Fico took matters into his own
hands and announced reshuffling some of the major government
positions to appease rebellin MPs and strengthen his majority
coalition. The bickering partners seem to be on board with the PM’s
compromise solution and agree that snap elections should be avoided, as
the opposition parties have been fueling anti-government protests for
weeks to call for one. The danger might have been thwarted for now, as
the main opposition party Progressive Slovakia began to dip in the
polls, while Fico’s main ruling party Smer is on the rise once more.
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