To readers of the Five Things newsletter: We wanted to let you know about this special new newsletter,
on the votes that matter to markets, business and policy amid the most fragmented geo-economic landscape in decades. We're sharing the first edition below. To keep receiving this newsletter, delivered occasionally ahead of key votes, sign up here.Whether you’re a hedge fund manager on Wall Street, a commodities trader in London or a bond investor in Singapore, you know that countries with almost half of the world’s population vote this year. Many of these votes are predicted to bring a tilt toward authoritarian rule across the globe. Cumulatively, they’ll show how dramatically the center of gravity has moved away from the post-World War II order and US-led institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the United Nations. A Donald Trump victory over Joe Biden in November could move markets as much, if not more, than when the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic. Less than two years ago, the mere idea of a Trump return was dismissed inside and outside the Beltway. Plenty of smart money was on Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose aspirations met the same fate as an old North Korean missile test: a lot of hype, failure on launch. Much of the rest of the world sees the replay of two old men slugging it out in November as a fitting metaphor for the decline of the American empire: the chaotic exit from Afghanistan, the money for Ukraine that has dried up, Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip going unchecked despite all the finger-wagging from Washington. In this environment, friends and foes are drawing their conclusions.  Biden and Trump both held rallies in Georgia on Saturday. Photographer: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images, Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images Over the coming months, we’ll connect the dots on elections from Mexico to South Africa and explain why they are important even when the outcomes —including Vladimir Putin winning in Russia and Narendra Modi tightening his grip on India — appear predictable. Latin America, once disparagingly known as the US’s backyard, is where Washington regularly played regime change. No more. It failed to oust Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, and now he’s effectively in a one-horse race in July that’s a testament to the limits of US power in the region. You see it in Mexico’s swagger as it overtook China as the US’s largest trading partner and boasts of an unstoppable peso. How much influence Andrés Manuel López Obrador will exert over his anointed successor will be one lens through which to look at how Trump will weaponize a hot-button issue like migration. India is JPMorgan’s top market pick in Asia, and Modi has not been shy in showcasing his ambition to become a driver of global growth. The killing of a Sikh activist in Canada was notable for the lengths the US and others went to avoid a confrontation with a rising superpower. If the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party imposes itself in parliamentary elections, Modi will assert himself even more on the world stage. One would have to go back to 2016 for a year as potentially geopolitically disruptive as this. The referendum on Brexit and the election of Trump unleashed a populist genie that is still playing out and comes full circle in European Parliament elections in June that are predicted to leave a national conservative footprint in the European Union. On Sunday, Portugal became the latest to experience the surge of right-wing political forces. The UK, now on its fifth prime minister since voting to quit the EU, is expected to opt to lean left instead, and perhaps reassess its ties to Europe as well as its “special relationship” with Washington. In Africa, seven coups in the past three years are a reminder of the fragility of young democracies. In South Africa, the party of Nelson Mandela will need to come to terms with its own disappointing legacy, and Ghana will be a window into how debilitating debt preys on one of the world’s poorer nations. Senegal’s delayed election will become the ultimate stress test for the West African nation. Two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin appears stronger than ever, with Western warnings that he has his sights on the Baltics and perhaps even Moldova. That’s a scenario preoccupying Lithuanians voting for a new president and parliament this year. The “West” in the form of the Group of Seven thought it could bring the Russian economy to its knees with sanctions and an oil price cap. Well, it didn’t. The limits of the geo-economic toolkit work both ways, of course. China will need to take stock of how its bid to court Europe has backfired, with growing skepticism of Chinese investments. The US and others should note that their attempt to take down Huawei failed, but the technological rivalry is still very much on — watch TikTok’s fate — and Taiwan, whose TSMC chipmaker is the world’s most advanced, is caught in the crosshairs. Would the US go to war to protect a democracy off the coast of China? In a world where Trump wins, and he pulls out of NATO and defunds the UN, the likes of Putin may seize an opportunity for a bigger land grab, and China may spot an opening to pounce on Taiwan, which it considers part of its territory and denies it will take by force. These are considerations that will form the backdrop to a ruling party election expected in Japan, home to more than 50,000 US troops that, in the event of a conflict in Asia, would be mobilized. And if all that feels far-fetched, consider the assessment of billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones, who in the aftermath of Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, saw the US in its weakest position since World War II. In short, not all elections are created equal, but in the lead-up to November, tune into our newsletter as we tease out each vote’s international relevance and war game what to expect in 2025. — Flavia Krause-Jackson  An African National Congress supporter with a t-shirt featuring South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in Durban on Feb. 24. Photographer: Leon Sadiki/Bloomberg | .jpg)
