Thursday, March 14, 2024

Porto resilience

 



Arsenal 1 Porto 0 (4-2 pens): Excellent Odegaard, Porto resilience and penalty progress

LONDON, ENGLAND - MARCH 12: Leandro Trossard of Arsenal celebrates scoring a goal during the UEFA Champions League 2023/24 round of 16 second leg match between Arsenal FC and FC Porto at Emirates Stadium on March 12, 2024 in London, England.(Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)
By Art de Roché and Mark Carey
Mar 12, 2024

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Arsenal are through to their first Champions League quarter-final since 2010 after squeezing past Porto on penalties on an excruciatingly tense night at the Emirates Stadium.

David Raya was the hero, saving spot kicks from Wendell and Galeno to ensure the London club, pristine with their own four penalties, avoided an eighth successive elimination in the last 16 of this competition after the hosts’ 1-0 win on the night left the tie all square 1-1 on aggregate.

Mikel Arteta’s side, who lost the first leg 1-0 in Portugal, had struggled to break down disciplined opponents until finally restoring parity in the tie four minutes from the interval. Martin Odegaard’s wonderful shimmy away from two Porto players and pass inside Joao Mario liberated Leandro Trossard, whose finish was precise into the far corner.

Yet that was a moment of brilliance amid plenty of huff and puff. Odegaard had a goal disallowed after half-time following a Kai Havertz tug on Pepe’s shirt in the build-up, but the hosts still laboured to break down Sergio Conceicao’s impressive team and the tie edged through an extra half hour and into a penalty shoot-out.

Art de Roche and Mark Carey analyse a fiercely contested occasion.


Why did Arsenal struggle to impose themselves?

Compared with the four-, five- and six-goal scorelines that Arsenal have rattled up for fun in the Premier League since the turn of the year, a more attritional game seems rather anomalous for Arteta’s side.

In 2024, the games have been free-flowing. The performances have been suffocating. So what has been different across both legs against Porto? Well, sometimes you simply need to credit the opponents.

Pepe snaps into a challenge on Declan Rice (Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)

Many fans might have thought that a tie against Sergio Conceicao’s side was among the easier clashes in the round of 16, but Porto’s performances this season have been built on a strong defensive foundation in all competitions — averaging just 0.68 goals conceded per 90 in the Primeira Liga, which is comfortably the best defensive record in Portugal.

Just as they were in the first leg last month, Porto were disciplined, well-drilled, and regimented — led by their 41-year-old captain Pepe, whose leadership, experience and continued professionalism knows no bounds.

Porto frustrated Arsenal for long periods. Their 4-5-1 block was rarely penetrated, and it took a world-class pass from the hosts’ captain Odegaard to finally put Arsenal on the scoreboard after 130 minutes of trying in this tie.

That was the only time Arsenal were able to force the ball past Diogo Costa across two games, plus extra time, before the shootout. Arsenal did not perform to their maximum, but Porto more than played their part in frustrating them across both legs.

Mark Carey

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Arteta accused of 'disrespecting' Porto coach Conceicao's family


Step forward Martin Odegaard

Porto deserve credit for slowing down the tempo in the first half tonight, but that is when you need players to step up.

The collective gasp of appreciation from the Emirates’ crowd when Odegaard slipped his pass inside Joao Mario to assist Trossard for what proved the only goal of the night was acknowledgement of a player seizing the moment.

The Arsenal captain has been in great playmaking form since December and has created more chances from open play (62) than any player in the top five European leagues. But that sumptuous final ball was not the only eye-catching moment supplied by the 25-year-old Norwegian.

His touches and body feints away from pressure, and his ball manipulation in tight areas, are what separate him from so many players.

It took Odegaard’s excellence to open Porto up (David Price/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)

As captain, he also took responsibility to put pressure on the Porto back line, haring forward when defenders were on the ball and back when midfielders took up possession.

His desire to lead also saw him display good presence of mind to calm Declan Rice down while the England international became embroiled in a heated argument with Otavio. Rice was a booking away from a suspension, so keeping him level-headed was vital in that moment.

To cap it all, Odegaard chose to have the penalties taken at the North Bank, the opposite end to where Arsenal were knocked out of the Europa League at this stage by another Portuguese club, Sporting Lisbon, last season, then sent Costa the wrong way to set the tone of the shootout.

Art de Roche


Raya proves his worth

As soon as this tie went to extra time, we were all preparing for the tension that penalties bring — remarkably, the first shootout in the Champions League since the 2016 final between Real Madrid and neighbours Atletico.

Odegaard led by example, stepping up to take the opening penalty, which he duly converted. After Porto’s Pepe converted their first one, Havertz exuded calm on Arsenal’s second with a stuttering run-up to slide the ball past Costa as he dove to his opposite side.

Then came the first save. Wendell stepped up with a confident run-up, but Raya guessed right and athletically flicked the left-back’s effort onto the post with his fingertips.

Raya saves the decisive penalty (Rob Newell – CameraSport via Getty Images)

With Bukayo Saka and Rice scoring their subsequent efforts with typical conviction, the pressure mounted for each Porto player. Galeno, the match-winning hero of the first leg, had to score.

The shot was good, but the save was better. Raya dived to his left and got two strong hands on the Brazilian’s effort.

Cue bedlam from the Arsenal faithful.

Mark Carey


Arteta’s players having to learn on the hoof

Arsenal’s players and staff would have been under no illusions about the task at hand with Porto. This is a squad Arteta has made young by design and nights like this are a key part of their education.

In the first leg, Havertz was the only member of the Arsenal XI to have previously started a knockout game in the Champions League. In the return at the Emirates Stadium, Jorginho added his calming presence, but the collective inexperience was still evident.

William Saliba and Saka have arguably been their most consistent players this season, but both struggled to truly settle. Whether it be loose touches in possession or a nervousness to bring down aerial balls, this was a different game to everything they are used to.

For Saka and his team-mates, a rare Champions League knockout tie was an education (Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)

Jorginho showed his craft at different points in the game, using his body well to win fouls and guiding Saka on which runs to make, but collectively that know-how still needs developing.

With the majority of the squad in their early or mid twenties, that will surely come with more exposure at this level.

Art de Roche


What does this mean for Arsenal’s season?

Arsenal will be grateful their meeting with Chelsea initially scheduled for this weekend has been postponed due to their opponents’ involvement in the FA Cup quarter-finals instead. Arteta only used one of his substitutions in the first 90 minutes here and another intense game in such quick succession could have represented a mountain to climb.

Champions League progression will mean they now have midweek games ahead of their league matches against Aston Villa and Wolves next month. These weeks will be an even bigger challenge for Arsenal in regards to how Arteta chooses to use his squad.

Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko were both given an opportunity to take further steps back in their returns from injury on Tuesday, which should bode well for the coming weeks. They also have Thomas Partey and Takehiro Tomiyasu, who will now have the two-week international break to regain more fitness.

The energy that comes from such a dramatic win should also galvanise a squad who have ridden through very possibly their toughest test of the season so far.

Momentum is with this side.

Art de Roche


What did Mikel Arteta say?

“It’s been 14 years (without being in the Champions League’s last eight) – a long time for a club like Arsenal. We had to dig in today, and find the magic moment. This is what the Emirates was built for. It hasn’t had nights like this before. In the stadium, we were all pushing to get it done, and we did it. This is where we want to be, and we worked so hard.

“It was really difficult, Porto are a really competitive team. You don’t get time to control the game, but we scored a goal in a really important moment. We didn’t have many chances, but we managed to do it! They (his players) feel like they can be winners. They will feel they can go to the next stage. The fans have got their Arsenal back again. They made us win, as simple as that.”

Asked what this win means for the title race, Arteta said: “It means momentum. Arsenal can go to Manchester City (their next game at the end of the month) full of confidence. We know it’s the lion’s den and they are the ultimate team. It would have been a downer if we’d lost, but this keeps ticking along beautifully. A really big night here.”


What next for Arsenal?

Sunday, March 31: Manchester City (A), Premier League, 4:30pm GMT, 11:30am ET

It’s the big one as Arsenal travel to the champions in a game that could have a big say in the destiny of this season’s title.

Arsenal’s last victory at the Etihad Stadium came in January 2015, when Santi Cazorla and Olivier Giroud scored in a 2-0 win. However, they did end a 12-game losing streak to City in the league in October (1-0).


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(Top photo: Marc Atkins/Getty Images)

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COMMENTS

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S

Steph V.

· Tue

Baffled by the BT/TNT/Discovery+ commentary narrative that Arsenal were facing some sort of Championship club that we should expect to breeze past. This Porto team is a serious side that is in this competition for a reason, they came with a game plan, executed it brilliantly and we were always going to have to fight to overcome some psychological demons. Credit to Porto, credit to Arsenal, fantastic UCL tie.


M

Mikko A.

· Tue

CL is often lauded to be the pinnacle of European club football but this tie was anything but. Porto played some absolutely appalling football over the two legs. And the way the two games were refereed clearly played into Porto’s hand.

Hope there’s a proper European tie coming up in the draw on Friday for Arsenal. I wouldn’t even mind a tough draw if it means we get to see an actual football match with two teams going for it rather than the dross that Porto put up.


J

John D.

· Tue

All about Odegaard tonight. Created the goal in a way none of our other players could, but also pressed more than any other player I’ve seen for two hours, and still showed the best touches throughout the game, and took the first pen. Exceptional player/role model etc




Wednesday, March 13, 2024

The Year of Elections

 




Bloomberg

To readers of the Five Things newsletter: We wanted to let you know about this special new newsletter, 


on the votes that matter to markets, business and policy amid the most fragmented geo-economic landscape in decades. We're sharing the first edition below. To keep receiving this newsletter, delivered occasionally ahead of key votes, sign up here.

Whether you’re a hedge fund manager on Wall Street, a commodities trader in London or a bond investor in Singapore, you know that countries with almost half of the world’s population vote this year.

Many of these votes are predicted to bring a tilt toward authoritarian rule across the globe. Cumulatively, they’ll show how dramatically the center of gravity has moved away from the post-World War II order and US-led institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the United Nations. 

A Donald Trump victory over Joe Biden in November could move markets as much, if not more, than when the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic.

Less than two years ago, the mere idea of a Trump return was dismissed inside and outside the Beltway. Plenty of smart money was on Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose aspirations met the same fate as an old North Korean missile test: a lot of hype, failure on launch. 

Much of the rest of the world sees the replay of two old men slugging it out in November as a fitting metaphor for the decline of the American empire: the chaotic exit from Afghanistan, the money for Ukraine that has dried up, Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip going unchecked despite all the finger-wagging from Washington. In this environment, friends and foes are drawing their conclusions.

Biden and Trump both held rallies in Georgia on Saturday. Photographer: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images, Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Over the coming months, we’ll connect the dots on elections from Mexico to South Africa and explain why they are important even when the outcomes —including Vladimir Putin winning in Russia and Narendra Modi tightening his grip on India — appear predictable.

Latin America, once disparagingly known as the US’s backyard, is where Washington regularly played regime change. No more. It failed to oust Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, and now he’s effectively in a one-horse race in July that’s a testament to the limits of US power in the region.

You see it in Mexico’s swagger as it overtook China as the US’s largest trading partner and boasts of an unstoppable peso. How much influence Andrés Manuel López Obrador will exert over his anointed successor will be one lens through which to look at how Trump will weaponize a hot-button issue like migration.

India is JPMorgan’s top market pick in Asia, and Modi has not been shy in showcasing his ambition to become a driver of global growth. The killing of a Sikh activist in Canada was notable for the lengths the US and others went to avoid a confrontation with a rising superpower. If the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party imposes itself in parliamentary elections, Modi will assert himself even more on the world stage.

One would have to go back to 2016 for a year as potentially geopolitically disruptive as this. The referendum on Brexit and the election of Trump unleashed a populist genie that is still playing out and comes full circle in European Parliament elections in June that are predicted to leave a national conservative footprint in the European Union. On Sunday, Portugal became the latest to experience  the surge of right-wing political forces.

The UK, now on its fifth prime minister since voting to quit the EU, is expected to opt to lean left instead, and perhaps reassess its ties to Europe as well as its “special relationship” with Washington.

In Africa, seven coups in the past three years are a reminder of the fragility of young democracies. In South Africa, the party of Nelson Mandela will need to come to terms with its own disappointing legacy, and Ghana will be a window into how debilitating debt preys on one of the world’s poorer nations. Senegal’s delayed election will become the ultimate stress test for the West African nation.

Two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin appears stronger than ever, with Western warnings that he has his sights on the Baltics and perhaps even Moldova. That’s a scenario preoccupying Lithuanians voting for a new president and parliament this year. The “West” in the form of the Group of Seven thought it could bring the Russian economy to its knees with sanctions and an oil price cap. Well, it didn’t.

The limits of the geo-economic toolkit work both ways, of course. China will need to take stock of how its bid to court Europe has backfired, with growing skepticism of Chinese investments. The US and others should note that their attempt to take down Huawei failed, but the technological rivalry is still very much on — watch TikTok’s fate — and Taiwan, whose TSMC chipmaker is the world’s most advanced, is caught in the crosshairs.

Would the US go to war to protect a democracy off the coast of China? In a world where Trump wins, and he pulls out of NATO and defunds the UN, the likes of Putin may seize an opportunity for a bigger land grab, and China may spot an opening to pounce on Taiwan, which it considers part of its territory and denies it will take by force.

These are considerations that will form the backdrop to a ruling party election expected in Japan, home to more than 50,000 US troops that, in the event of a conflict in Asia, would be mobilized. And if all that feels far-fetched, consider the assessment of billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones, who in the aftermath of Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, saw the US in its weakest position since World War II.

In short, not all elections are created equal, but in the lead-up to November, tune into our newsletter as we tease out each vote’s international relevance and war game what to expect in 2025. — Flavia Krause-Jackson 

An African National Congress supporter with a t-shirt featuring South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in Durban on Feb. 24. Photographer: Leon Sadiki/Bloomberg

Global Economy Q&A

We spoke with Tom Orlik, the chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, based in Washington, for his perspective.

The big one for 2024 is the US presidential race. How will economics impact the outcome?

Orlik: With inflation heading back to target and unemployment low, Biden will be hoping that a soft landing is a vote winner. The trouble is, the way voters think about inflation is very different from the way economists think about it. Yes, by November the year-on-year change in prices will likely be close to the Fed’s 2% target. But voters will care more that the cost of their weekly shop has rocketed up since Biden took office.

This is going to be an election which is about a lot more than economics. Biden’s age, Trump’s court cases, and the Supreme Court ruling on abortion could all have a bigger impact on the outcome. To the extent that economics does factor in, it’s probably bad news for the incumbent, good news for his predecessor. Trump certainly seems to think so — his Super Tuesday speech included an extended riff on inflation hurting US households.

Relations with China were on the ballot for Taiwan in January, and they'll be on the ballot for the US in November. What are you expecting?

Orlik: In the Taiwan election, the win for William Lai — who China regards as a firebrand for independence — could have been the trigger for escalating tensions. So far, though, the reaction from Beijing has been muted. Bloomberg Economics' Taiwan stress index — which tracks rhetoric from China’s diplomats and military activity in the Taiwan Strait — has been basically flat. We’ll see if that changes ahead of Lai’s inauguration in May.

The US election is another potential catalyst for rising temperatures. Trump knows from 2016 that tough on China is a vote winner. He’s already trailed a 60% tariff on all US imports from China — enough to effectively turn off all trade between the world’s two major powers. That increases pressure on the Biden administration to show its China hawk talons. Controls on electric vehicle imports are a potential area of focus.

To keep receiving this newsletter, delivered occasionally ahead of key votes, sign up here.

The Markets Take

Simon Kennedysenior executive editor who oversees macro markets, discusses possible reactions.

Asked recently when they start taking elections into account, a group of traders agreed the traditional rule of thumb was three months out from the opening of ballot boxes.

But so shocking to markets was Trump’s 2016 victory (and the same year’s Brexit vote) that some are already starting to game out this year’s US election.

Those who reckon Trump will return to the White House are eyeing ways to bet against US bonds on the basis he would fan inflation by making his 2017 individual tax cuts permanent. His talk of imposing tariffs on imports, especially those from China, would likely boost the dollar by hurting the currencies of trading partners.

According to Mansoor Mohi-uddin of Bank of Singapore, gold’s recent surge may also be explained by investors bracing for geopolitical uncertainty by purchasing a traditional safe-haven asset.

But Mohi-uddin adds that the election still remains highly uncertain, leaving markets somewhat at the risk of volatile opinion polls in the meantime.

For once, it may actually be easier to predict the results of emerging markets votes. India is expected to return Modi to office in coming weeks, while former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum has a clear lead in national surveys.

As always, there are rewards for calling elections correctly early, but losses for those who get it wrong.

To keep receiving this newsletter, delivered occasionally ahead of key votes, sign up here.

More from Bloomberg

  • Tune into The Year of Elections, Bloomberg’s new newsletter on the votes that matter to markets, business and policy, delivered periodically throughout the year
  • Check out our Bloomberg Investigates film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries
  • Balance of Power for the latest political news and analysis from around the globe
  • Washington Edition for exclusive coverage on how the worlds of money and politics intersect in the US capital
  • Explore all Bloomberg newsletters at Bloomberg.com.
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