23 items of vital vocabulary you’ll need to know in 2023
Passkeys? Post-quantum cryptography? Vertiports? Get up to speed here
By Written by Martin Adams, Aryn Braun, Joel Budd, Tom Standage and Vijay Vaitheeswaran
In 2020 and 2021 the world embarked on a crash course in epidemiology and vaccinology. Novel expressions such as “flattening the curve”, “viral load”, “spike protein” and “mrna vaccines” became part of the public discourse. Then in 2022 the war in Ukraine made it grimly necessary to learn new terms, such as “himars” and “counter-battery fire”. What terms of art will enter wider circulation in 2023? Here are our best 23 guesses, with a definition of each one, to expand your vocabulary for the coming year
Green, blue and brown hydrogen
Hydrogen is a colourless gas that burns cleanly, producing just water vapour. Despite being the most abundant element in the universe, it is rarely found on Earth in a pure form. When making pure hydrogen, some methods are much dirtier than others—so energy wonks use different colours to identify them. “Green” hydrogen is made using renewable energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen via electrolysis. Europe is promoting its use, and renewables-rich regions from Australia to India hope to become green-hydrogen exporters. By contrast, making “black” or “brown” hydrogen involves burning coal or lignite, releasing huge amounts of carbon dioxide. This is cheap but bad for the climate. “Grey” hydrogen is made from natural gas, in a process that also releases carbon dioxide (but less than using coal). “Blue” hydrogen is also made from natural gas, but the resulting carbon dioxide is then captured and stored underground. Big Oil is excited about this, because in theory it can also be relatively green, if leaks are tightly monitored and controlled. “Turquoise” hydrogen uses a different process to split natural gas, resulting in hydrogen and solid carbon. Several startups are pursuing this approach. “Pink” hydrogen is, like the green sort, made using electrolysis, but powered by nuclear energy. Finally, “white” hydrogen is the pure kind that occurs in nature but is rare on Earth.
eSIM
Those tiny chips that go into your smartphone and link it to your billing details and phone number—known as subscriber identity modules, or sims—are going away. So-called esim technology replaces physical chips with digital codes that can be zapped from an old handset to a new one. The technology has been in phones since 2017, but Apple’s decision to launch its iPhone 14 range in America as esim-only handsets will force millions of people to start using it in 2023. As with mice and touchscreens, Apple’s embrace of a technology will be the trigger for widespread adoption. It will push mobile operators around the world to move to esims and make the process of transferring them between devices less clunky. The technology also makes it easier to roam between networks by installing multiple esims—less fiddly than swapping tiny chips.
Post-quantum cryptography
Quantum computers exploit the weirdness of the subatomic realm to do things that ordinary computers cannot. That includes cracking codes: a working quantum computer, if one can be built, could break the encryption that is currently used to secure communications and protect sensitive data. To protect against this possibility, new “post-quantum” cryptography standards, designed to be invulnerable even to quantum computers, were approved in 2022, and preparations for their implementation will begin in earnest in 2023.
Mixed reality
Virtual reality (vr) is like wearing a digital blindfold—it blots out the real world and immerses you in an alternative, computer-generated reality. Augmented reality (ar), by contrast, superimposes computer-generated elements onto your view of the real world. Mixed reality (xr or mr) goes a step further by allowing real and virtual items to interact. For example, you might play a game of table tennis in which the paddles are real, but the ball is computer generated. It is also a less clunky term than augmented reality, and more likely to catch on. A big question for 2023 is what Apple will choose to call the technology when it announces its first ar/vr/xr headset—which is rumoured to be powered by software called “realityOS”.
Passkeys
Death to passwords! Passkeys are a new technology, supported by tech giants including Apple, Google and Microsoft, that replace passwords with biometrically validated tokens that are automatically generated and cannot be guessed or forgotten. Essentially, instead of typing a password, you use a token, stored on your phone or computer and protected by a fingerprint or facial recognition, to log into apps or websites. Many online services, including eBay, Kayak and PayPal, are using this approach already, and more will follow in 2023 as support for the technology is extended to the latest versions of popular desktop and mobile operating systems.
Because a unique passkey is generated for every app or website you use, passkeys prevent many common attacks, such as “phishing” emails that trick users into entering their credentials into a plausible-looking, but bogus, website. Passkeys also, by default, stop people from using the same (often easily guessed) password for everything. All this should give online security a big boost—with the added benefit that logging into something by clicking your smartwatch is strangely thrilling.
Horizontal and vertical escalation
How might the conflict in Ukraine escalate in 2023? Military wonks distinguish between two dimensions of escalation. Horizontal escalation is where the geographical scope of a conflict expands (for example, if Russia attacks another country, drawing it into the conflict). Vertical escalation is where the intensity of the conflict increases, either with attacks on new types of targets, or through the introduction of new types of weapon (such as chemical or nuclear warheads). Neither is good.
Tactical nuclear weapons
Might Russia resort to the use of “tactical” nuclear weapons in Ukraine? These tend to have shorter ranges and lower yields than city-busting “strategic” weapons, such as icbms. If, say, Ukraine’s forces were about to reclaim Crimea in 2023, Vladimir Putin might be tempted to use one to halt Ukraine’s military advance. But it is unlikely to be very effective: one warhead might destroy just a dozen tanks. Mr Putin might instead opt to detonate a small nuke over the Black Sea as a warning. But allies such as China might then abandon him. And the West would surely respond, perhaps hitting Russian targets in Ukraine with conventional weapons. Tit-for-tat attacks then risk leading to an exchange of much more powerful strategic weapons. “Tactical” is, in short, a misnomer when it comes to nukes: they are inherently, perilously strategic.
Frozen conflict
A frozen conflict is a military stand-off in which actual combat has ceased, but there has been no resolution of the underlying conflict (for example, through a peace treaty or political settlement)—so there is a risk that hostilities might restart at any time. They are often the result of big-power meddling. Vladimir Putin has created several frozen conflicts in parts of the former Soviet Union (including, from late 2014 until early 2022, in eastern Ukraine) as a way of destabilising neighbouring countries. Such conflicts can last decades, as with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia-backed republics that broke away from Georgia in the early 1990s. In 2023, Russian weakness may mean that some of these frozen conflicts start to thaw.
Regasification
Natural gas is normally delivered via pipelines, because unlike oil, it is difficult to load and unload onto ships. This makes natural-gas markets much less liquid than those for oil, because a pipeline is generally needed between buyer and seller. But liquefied natural gas (lng) changes the equation. Cooling natural gas down to -162°C turns it into a liquid and reduces its volume 600-fold, enabling it to be transported over long distances using special, cryogenically cooled tanker ships.
This allows for global trade in natural gas—handy for European countries that wish to reduce their reliance on Russian gas delivered by pipelines. Lately, European countries have instead been buying it from America or Qatar, two big lng exporters. Turning lng back into a gas, so that it can be fed into pipelines and used as a fuel, is called regasification. This normally takes place at a coastal lng terminal. But building onshore facilities takes time, so a quicker solution is to lease ships, called “floating storage and regasification units”, to do the job. Germany’s government has chartered five such ships to boost its lng import capacity.
Aridification
At what point is drought, or even megadrought, no longer sufficient to describe a dry period? In some places scientists and officials now talk instead of aridification, or the long-term drying of a region. Higher temperatures caused by climate change have plenty of knock-on effects. In already arid regions such as southern Europe, coastal Australia and southern Africa, climate change is shrinking mountain snowpack and drying out rivers, soils and forests. In California, Spain and elsewhere, summer brings the threat of ever-more severe wildfires. In 2023, these regions will grapple with hotter temperatures, more intense wildfires and less water. Aridification will force agricultural powerhouses, such as California and China, to reckon with shrinking water supplies. And parched cities will worry that it could put a ceiling on population growth.
Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions
Scope 1 emissions are those directly caused by a company’s activities, such as burning fuel in factories or vehicles. Scope 2 emissions are indirect emissions (from a power station, for example) that result from a firm’s energy use. Scope 3 emissions are all other emissions that arise from the activities of a company’s suppliers and customers. For an oil company, the emissions that result when the oil it sells is burned by others are Scope 3 emissions. Should firms be liable for such emissions? In 2023, expect more regulators to argue that they should.
Resilience hubs and cool pavements
Cities around the world are adopting various measures to deal with the threat of heatwaves, which are increasing in frequency and severity, and put old and infirm people at particular risk. Resilience hubs are designated buildings—or, in some cases, pods made from shipping containers—within a community that provide air-conditioned places of refuge with drinking water, internet access and phone-charging facilities. Cities are also reducing temperatures by introducing cool roofs (covered with white paint or reflective materials) and cool pavements (treated with special coatings) to reflect sunlight away and absorb less heat. Cities pioneering cool sidewalks and road surfaces include Los Angeles, Phoenix and Tokyo.
Dead pool
Most people will associate “dead pool” with Marvel’s sarcastic anti-hero, played by Ryan Reynolds on the silver screen. In America’s western states, however, it has a different meaning. Most of the West’s big reservoirs were created by damming rivers in the 20th century. But these man-made lakes have shrunk over the past two decades as the rivers that feed them have dried up. When a reservoir is depleted to the point where water can no longer be sent downstream, it becomes a static, or dead, pool. In 2023 some reservoirs will move closer to this state. Lake Mead and Lake Powell—America’s two largest reservoirs, which straddle the Colorado river—have become dangerously dry. Should Lake Powell hit dead pool, water supplies would dwindle for the 40m people across the south-west who depend on the Colorado River for water.
Synfuels and e-fuels
Synthetic fuels, also known as synfuels, are drop-in replacements for conventional hydrocarbon fuels (such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel), that are produced artificially rather than being made from oil. Electrofuels or e-fuels are synfuels made using renewable energy. Solar or wind power is used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen via electrolysis. The hydrogen is then combined with carbon dioxide, either taken from industrial processes or extracted from the atmosphere, to produce a hydrocarbon fuel. Depending on the process used, the resulting fuel can have a lower carbon footprint than conventional fuel, or be entirely carbon neutral. E-fuels make little sense for road vehicles (which can be easily electrified) but could power ships and planes by, in effect, repackaging renewable electricity as a liquid fuel.
Productivity paranoia
Does working from home make you more productive? In a survey by Microsoft of 20,000 workers in 11 countries, 87% thought they worked just as efficiently, or more efficiently, from home. But only 12% of bosses had full confidence that their teams were being productive. The result is “productivity paranoia”, both among workers (afraid of being seen as shirkers) and bosses (afraid that workers are shirking). It can, in turn, lead to displays of “productivity theatre” as workers strive to demonstrate they are pulling their weight.
TWaT city
Fears early in the covid-19 pandemic that people would never return to offices were misplaced. But so were hopes that people’s working habits would eventually return to normal. Instead many workers have fallen into a pattern of travelling to the office only on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays. Cities are in denial about this trend, but in 2023 they will have to adapt to the “TWaTs”. Bars are packed on Thursday evenings as workers say farewell to each other; watering holes can adapt fairly easily by altering shift rotas. But offices will have to be more creative, either by reducing staffing or finding other uses for their spaces on quiet days. Public-transport operators will have to adjust, too. Instead of reducing services on Mondays and Fridays, they could try shifting demand by cutting prices on those days, and increasing them between Tuesday and Thursday.
Doughnut effect
The pandemic-driven rise of working from home means that people prize proximity to offices less and domestic space more. Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University and Arjun Ramani, who is now a correspondent at The Economist, have identified a “doughnut effect” in large cities. As workers move away from city centres, suburban rental values have shot up, creating a ring of growth. This name relies on the fact that American doughnuts have holes in the middle. Commercial-property developers hope that people can be lured back to city centres by exceptional amenities such as beautiful offices and fantastic views. They envisage the British kind of doughnut which, instead of having a hole in the middle, is filled with jam.
Battery Belt
The Rust Belt is the name given to parts of America that have suffered from the decline of manufacturing since the 1950s. Now efforts are under way to revitalise these regions by promoting investment in new, green industries such as electric-car manufacturing and “gigafactories” that make automotive batteries. Ford is investing $50bn to expand production of electric vehicles, its rival gm is investing $35bn, and an estimated $40bn is going into new or expanded battery production in this new “Battery Belt”. Will the name catch on in 2023?
YIMBY
Whereas nimbys want nothing built in their backyards, yimbys say “yes” to development. Preferring high-density development to car-driven sprawl, they have been around for years, but have had limited success in altering planning rules. That will change in 2023. In July the Affordable Housing and High Road Jobs Act comes into effect in California. It will make it easier to build homes in areas currently dominated by offices, shops and car parks and will ease the rigid separation of living and working areas created by zoning laws. California is also watering down rules that force developers to provide so much parking space. Parking obligations will be weakened for new developments close to public transport, which should reduce construction costs and prices. And where California leads, the rest of the world tends to follow eventually.
Virtual power plant
A growing number of homes and businesses have solar panels and batteries that can provide electricity to the property and can also deliver power to the electricity grid when needed. When used together in large numbers, and co-ordinated via internet commands, hundreds or thousands of these small-scale generation and storage systems can act in concert, functioning, in effect, as a virtual power plant that can be switched on and off at short notice. Users must opt in to allow their equipment to be used in this way, and they are paid for the energy supplied.
Virtual power plants can eliminate the need for expensive, polluting “peaker plants” to maintain supply at peak times. They can also help electrical utilities with frequency regulation and voltage control, both of which must be managed carefully to balance supply and demand, particularly on electrical grids that rely heavily on intermittent sources such as solar and wind power. Virtual power plants are an example of how “smart grids” can facilitate the shift towards renewable energy sources. They have been deployed in Australia, Britain, California and Germany.
Vertiport
Air taxis, also known as flying cars or evtol (electric, vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft, are essentially multirotor drones that are large enough to carry people. Several firms around the world hope such vehicles will win regulatory approval in 2023 as a fast, sustainable form of urban transport. But evtols can’t take off and land just anywhere. Instead, they will need designated places to do so—so-called vertiports—that are half-airport, half-subway station, and that allow evtols to be integrated with existing transport networks, such as road and rail. All of this poses a new challenge to architects and urban designers, who are already coming up with some distinctive designs. Vertiports will be needed if evtols are to get off the ground.
Space solar power
The idea of capturing energy in space using huge solar arrays attached to orbiting satellites, and then beaming it down to Earth as microwaves, has been around since Isaac Asimov proposed it in a science-fiction story in 1941. But the sums have never added up: launching things into space simply costs too much. That could change if launch costs fall far enough, or if new space-based manufacturing techniques emerge, such as mining asteroids for raw materials. And in a high enough orbit, a solar-power satellite could stay in sunlight around the clock, providing a clean, reliable source of power. The European Space Agency sponsored a ground-based demonstration in Germany in 2022 as part of a proposed scheme called Solaris. America, Britain, China and Japan are also funding research in the field, which is experiencing a new dawn.
Cislunar
America intends to send astronauts to the Moon in the next few years, with the long-term goal of establishing a permanent base there. As part of its Artemis programme it intends to put a space station, called the Lunar Gateway, in orbit around the Moon to act as a communications hub, science laboratory and short-term living space; it is due to launch in 2024. A series of preparatory robotic missions to the Moon will blast off in 2023. Things are hotting up in “cislunar” space—as the space between Earth and the orbit of the Moon is known.■
Written by Martin Adams, Aryn Braun, Joel Budd, Tom Standage and Vijay Vaitheeswaran
This article appeared in the Understand This section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2023 under the headline “Understand This”
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