Ten Market Considerations for Collectors at Art Basel This Week
Reflecting on Art Basel and UBS's 2025 art market report, Tom Seymour considers how uncertainty brings opportunity when equipped with the right knowledge.
Art Basel arrives in a period of strategic adjustment for many art collectors, following a season of high-profile auctions that made headlines not for what sold, but for what didn’t.
The froth of the past few years has given way to a more measured and knowledge-led marketplace, with many collectors seeking not just beauty or novelty, but the significance and staying power of what is often termed ‘value-led’ collecting.
With that in mind, the Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report 2025 is essential reading. Economist Dr Clare McAndrew’s report is widely regarded as a bellwether for the industry, drawing on the most recent data available on dealer surveys, auction data, and collector behaviour to map the evolving landscape of buying and selling art the world over.
What are the ten topline market considerations for collectors navigating the Messeplatz this week?
1. The Global Art Market Is Cooling—but Not Collapsing
The global art market declined by 12% in 2024, falling to an estimated $57.5 billion (all figures USD; p. 17). This marks the second consecutive year of contraction, following a 4% dip in 2023. Few anticipated such a downturn. Collectors largely overlooked the volatility of the pandemic years with sales remaining surprisingly robust, before dealers enjoyed a post-lockdown surge driven by the rise of non-fungible tokens and what some dubbed speculative bets on ‘wet paint’ art—works so fresh their canvases were still drying when they reach the fair floor.
But the current slowdown will present opportunities for savvy collectors. The report documents how pricing has become more sober and inventories tighter in response to less market competition. Sales of works priced over $10 million fell by 9% (p. 54), while the number of transactions across the market rose by 3%—indicating a shift toward lower price tiers and giving collectors greater leverage (p. 17). Collectors arriving in Basel should, as a result, consider the potential for more negotiation than in editions past.
2. A Shift Toward Value-Driven Collecting
Amid economic uncertainty, the report notes a marked shift toward what it calls ‘value-driven collecting’—a trend characterised by greater emphasis on curatorial research, provenance, institutional support and long-term value over speculative buying (p. 33).
In 2024, 62% of surveyed high-net-worth collectors reported prioritising artworks with strong historical or cultural significance, rather than those expected to rapidly appreciate in price. In industry reports, dealers have cited a rise in clients asking for condition reports, artist estates information and exhibition histories before purchasing.
As a result, buyers at Basel will likely approach booths with more caution, deeper knowledge and longer timelines. The art market, at times driven by impulse and immediacy, appears to be becoming more grounded in scholarship.
3. Mid-Market Dealers Are Working Closely with the Museum Sector
Dealer sales fell by 6% in 2024, with smaller galleries faring worse than their blue-chip counterparts (p. 17). The middle market, then, appears to be feeling the most strain. Yet dealers representing artists with institutional backing and loyal collector bases weathered the year better with sales among this group rising by 5% (p. 77).
On the fair floor, expect many dealers to actively highlight artists with recent museum exhibitions, biennial appearances or prestigious awards—a way of offering institutional reassurance to newly risk-averse buyers.
This is particularly true of artists who may have been recently unearthed in a museum show after failing to gain the requisite recognition throughout their career.
London gallerist Pippy Houldsworth told Ocula: ‘Surveys such as Denver Art Museum's Women of Abstract Expressionism in 2016, and the 2022 Whitechapel show Action, Gesture, Paint, that toured to Fondation Vincent Van Gogh Arles and Kunsthalle Bielefeld, have brought attention to a group of women artists working in 1950s and ’60s New York who had been largely sidelined by the predominant patriarchal narrative. Our presentation of historic works by Judith Godwin at Art Basel is a case in point’.
4. Online Sales Are Stabilising at a Lower Level
After rapid expansion during the pandemic, online-only art sales declined by 11% to $10.5 billion in 2024 (p. 18). That’s still 76% higher than pre-pandemic levels, but down from the $13.3 billion peak in 2021. The online share of total art market sales held steady at 18%.
The report details how hybrid buying models are now becoming the norm, with most respondents preferring to buy from a dealer, but when doing so, just over half (52%) preferring to buy via their websites or social media channels and without viewing the work in person (p. 33). The physical fair—like the one about to open in Basel—remains the dominant forum for selling blue-chip art. But digital tools—such as virtual previews, augmented reality displays and remote bidding—are now essential parts of the collecting process. Make sure to stay on top of these emerging technologies.
5. Private Sales Are Rising at Auction Houses
While recent public auctions have struggled to move their stock, private sales through auction houses rose by 14% in 2024, totalling $4.4 billion (p. 17). Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips are leveraging their networks to broker discreet, high-value deals—often behind closed doors, in the back of restaurants, or via WhatsApp chats.
For collectors hoping to quietly acquire desirable works outside the public gaze, these private channels increasingly rival the gallery model. Expect to hear murmurs in Basel’s bars of sealed deals conducted long before the fair doors opened. Perhaps manoeuvre accordingly.
6. Asia Remains Resilient—but Not Immune
Sales in mainland China fell sharply by 31% in 2024 to $8.4 billion, the lowest level since 2009 (p. 18). This reflects broader economic challenges and consumer confidence in the country’s economy at large. Yet the report finds that Hong Kong has retained its status as a key hub for regional collectors, while South Korea and Japan are gaining in prominence on the global stage.
Japan, notably, saw 2% year-on-year growth—defying the wider downward trend (p. 18). As Asian galleries expand their presence at major fairs, and as more and more collectors fly in from the Far East, their Western counterparts would do well to pay close attention: the next decade of global demand—and perhaps supply—may well be shaped from the East.
7. American Collectors Are Holding Steady—but Spending Cautiously
The U.S. remains the largest global art market, accounting for 43% of total sales (p. 17). Yet its own sales fell by 9% to $24.8 billion in 2024, following a 10% decline the year before. Political uncertainty and trade protectionism have made even seasoned buyers more strategic, with many placing greater emphasis on long-term value (pp. 30–31). In an economic climate shaped by the uncertainty of tariffs, many U.S. collectors seem to be playing a longer game.
8. Women Artists Remain Undervalued Despite Curatorial Gains
Despite increased representation in institutional exhibitions, sales of work by women artists continue to lag behind those of their male counterparts. According to the report, female artists are still significantly underrepresented in the commercial market relative to their visibility in exhibitions. Many dealers point to collector conservatism, valuation bias and lack of resale benchmarks as key structural challenges.
At Art Basel, this imbalance may become visible in the pricing and presentation strategies of gallery booths—even when women artists feature prominently on walls or in fair programming. This presents opportunities for keen collectors.
9. Younger Artists Face Mounting Market Pressures
After years of market enthusiasm, prices for artists under 40 fell across most price points in 2024 (pp. 26–27). The decline follows a speculative boom that saw many younger names debut at auction or enter collections prematurely. The report notes that collectors are now showing greater hesitancy toward investing in untested artists without long-term institutional support.
Expect this recalibration to be particularly evident in Basel’s Statements and Unlimited sectors, where emerging artists are most often showcased—and where dealers are now tasked with justifying long-term significance as well as immediate impact. Again, sharp-eyed collectors could find the next Jeff Koons here, without a comparable bidding war.
10. Trust and Transparency Are Becoming More Important
The report details how institutional context, exhibition history and catalogue scholarship are key to purchase decisions (p. 30–34), which gives an advantage to dealers who have gone to lengths to provide a quality catalogue raisonné and can exhibit due diligence on provenance issues. Expect fewer impulse buys and more scrutiny of condition reports, artist estates and long-term cultural value. A welcome change. —[O]
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