Last summer, Joan Robertson and her husband, Mark, finally realized their yearslong goal of buying a second home in the Sun Belt to escape the brutal winters of Minnesota. Persuaded by one of their sons who loves amusement parks, they homed in on Kissimmee, Florida, just south of Orlando, and bought a three-bedroom townhouse in a gated community with resort access for $295,000. To help pay off the mortgage, they planned to operate the home as a short-term rental. They upgraded the 2000s-era mustard-colored walls and oak-paneled kitchen cabinets with pastel and white paint, hired a property management company to handle the day-to-day logistics, and booked a photographer to make their listing stand out in a sea of options on Airbnb, Booking.com and Vrbo. In October, they put their home online, hoping to attract other snowbirds or visitors to Walt Disney World, which is just a 10-minute drive away. Ten months in, things haven’t panned out as they’d hoped. “We have absolutely zero bookings in August,” Robertson says. “This summer is extremely slow.”  Mark and Joan Robertson at their house in Minnesota. Photographer: Andrea Ellen Reed She isn’t alone in feeling the pinch. Founded in 2008 as a way for travelers to find unique and affordable places to stay around the world, Airbnb Inc. has not only disrupted the hotel industry with its success but also created a whole new class of homebuyer: the short-term rental speculator. Some people bought multiple properties, renovating once-derelict homes with stylish furnishings and renting them out year-round; others bought more house than they could afford and wound up renting out the bottom floor or a single room to make ends meet. But lately hosts have hit a wall: Short-term rentals in Orlando and the surrounding suburbs saw revenue per available room drop 6.4% in the first half of this year, according to data compiled by economist Bram Gallagher at analytics firm AirDNA LLC. Near Joshua Tree National Park in California and in towns such as Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge in the Great Smoky Mountains of Tennessee (think: Dollywood), revenue has plummeted as much as 17% and 8.7%, respectively. Online, it’s been dubbed an “Airbnbust.” Creeping angst about the phenomenon started spreading last fall on the internet and in host chat groups. One post on social media went viral: “What’s going on with Airbnb? No bookings at all.” There’s a Reddit channel where hosts commiserate and share news stories with titles such as: “Is Airbnb in a Death Spiral?” That may be an exaggeration. As a company, Airbnb is still reaping the benefits of high interest in travel, and people are still seeking out its listings around the world. It recorded 115 million nights, tours and events booked in the second quarter, up 11% from a year ago. Its share price is up over 60% this year, riding high on a recent earnings report that named this year’s second quarter the most profitable one yet. But Airbnb’s corporate earnings don’t tell the whole story either. The market is experiencing a shakeout that will reward winners—with the right location, amenities and price—and punish losers. But who’s winning and who’s losing? Natalie Lung and Jesse Levine take you inside the hosting world of Airbnb. | 
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